September CPI monthly change seen between 0.5 and 0.6 percent

Name: September CPI monthly change seen between 0.5 and 0.6 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092904 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9 | published: 2026-09-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

The ladder pins September CPI monthly change in the 0.5-0.6% range: 54% above 0.5% but only 17% above 0.6%, a relatively tight distribution.
Collapsing consumer confidence to a 12-year low is not yet reflected as downward pressure on the CPI ladder, which still prices a moderate monthly gain.
August core PCE came in at 3.0% year-over-year, softer than expected; if that disinflationary impulse carries into September CPI, the 0.6%-plus tail could erode further.
Resolution source is unspecified; the BLS typically releases the following month's CPI mid-month, making this an October data event.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest level in over a decade, as consumers grow more pessimistic.exa_search → thehill.com · as_of 2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00
publisher: thehill.com
published_at: 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder event carries no named venue; resolution mechanics and source are unspecified in the provided data.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpi-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-5-0-6-ladder-2026-09-29/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-5-0-6-ladder-2026-09-29.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sept-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-5-0-6-ladder-2026-09-29")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092904",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder pins September CPI monthly change in the 0.5-0.6% range: 54% above 0.5% but only 17% above 0.6%, a relatively tight distribution.",
    "Collapsing consumer confidence to a 12-year low is not yet reflected as downward pressure on the CPI ladder, which still prices a moderate monthly gain.",
    "August core PCE came in at 3.0% year-over-year, softer than expected; if that disinflationary impulse carries into September CPI, the 0.6%-plus tail could erode further.",
    "Resolution source is unspecified; the BLS typically releases the following month's CPI mid-month, making this an October data event."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thehill.com",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest level in over a decade, as consumers grow more pessimistic.",
      "publisher": "thehill.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder event carries no named venue; resolution mechanics and source are unspecified in the provided data."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thehill.com: Consumer confidence falls to a dozen-year low in September",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092904 published 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-a124dd0b77b… ← underlying event all signals →