Fed funds upper bound seen holding at 3.50-3.75%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081401",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:59:28.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following next Fed decision",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the post-decision Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% chance above 3.50%, only 26% above 3.75%.",
    "News reports hawks may resist a pause at Jackson Hole, but the distribution shows no meaningful probability above 4.00%, consistent with a market holding firmly to a hold.",
    "Separately, the Kalshi contract on whether the Fed raises rates at all (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028) sits at 48%, suggesting rate-hike risk is fully priced into a longer horizon, not September.",
    "Resolution tracks the actual upper bound target set by the Federal Reserve following its next policy decision."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "uk.finance.yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-bet-on-a-pause-for-september-but-fed-hawks-may-not-be-swayed-ahead-of-jackson-hole-175928197.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Markets are pricing a September Fed pause as cooling inflation and soft spending data dominate ahead of Jackson Hole, though Fed hawks may resist.",
      "publisher": "uk.finance.yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:59:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-bet-on-a-pause-for-september-but-fed-hawks-may-not-be-swayed-ahead-of-jackson-hole-175928197.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covering the post-decision Fed funds upper bound shows a tightly clustered consensus around 3.50-3.75%, with the tail above 3.75% priced at just 26%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "uk.finance.yahoo.com: Markets bet on a pause for September, but Fed hawks may not be swayed",
      "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-bet-on-a-pause-for-september-but-fed-hawks-may-not-be-swayed-ahead-of-jackson-hole-175928197.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:59:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}