September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K

Name: September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092801 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3 | published: 2026-09-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder puts the September 2026 payrolls implied range at roughly 90K-100K, with 59% pricing above 90K but only 46% above 100K.
Trading volume on the Kalshi payrolls ladder surged 739x day-over-day, signaling intense fresh positioning ahead of Friday's release.
The wide sell-side estimate range (35K-180K) matches the ladder's fat distribution tails, with 83% still pricing above 30K.
The 125K strike commands only 28% odds, suggesting markets are not pricing a strong beat versus the 84K street consensus.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: FXStreet reports Friday's September jobs report is the week's key macro event, with consensus at 84,000 and a wide estimate range of 35,000-180,000.exa_search → fxstreet.com · as_of 2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00
publisher: fxstreet.com
published_at: 2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z
source_url: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder on September 2026 nonfarm payrolls; day-over-day volume surge of 738.8x confirms high pre-release attention.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-nfp-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-volume-up-739x-2026-09-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-nfp-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-volume-up-739x-2026-09-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sept-nfp-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-volume-up-739x-2026-09-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092801",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts the September 2026 payrolls implied range at roughly 90K-100K, with 59% pricing above 90K but only 46% above 100K.",
    "Trading volume on the Kalshi payrolls ladder surged 739x day-over-day, signaling intense fresh positioning ahead of Friday's release.",
    "The wide sell-side estimate range (35K-180K) matches the ladder's fat distribution tails, with 83% still pricing above 30K.",
    "The 125K strike commands only 28% odds, suggesting markets are not pricing a strong beat versus the 84K street consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "FXStreet reports Friday's September jobs report is the week's key macro event, with consensus at 84,000 and a wide estimate range of 35,000-180,000.",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on September 2026 nonfarm payrolls; day-over-day volume surge of 738.8x confirms high pre-release attention."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: Yields rip higher as focus shifts to jobs data",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092801 published 2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z signature sha256-f69b0db5118… ← underlying event all signals →