September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K

Name: September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026100101 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3 | published: 2026-10-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Ladder pins September payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 51% above 90K, only 45% above 100K, 28% above 125K.
ADP's 90K private-sector print and Wall Street's 84K consensus both sit squarely in the ladder's modal band, markets broadly consistent with incoming data.
Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 9,950x day over day, signaling intense fresh attention ahead of the Friday BLS print.
The sharp drop from 65% above 80K to 51% above 90K shows the market sees meaningful downside tail risk around the consensus estimate.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Wall Street forecasts 84,000 September nonfarm payrolls ahead of Friday's BLS release, with ADP printing 90,000 private-sector jobs.exa_search → Jeff Cox · as_of 2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00
publisher: Jeff Cox
published_at: 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder resolves via BLS Employment Situation; volume spike confirms high event sensitivity heading into the release.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-ladder-51-above-90k-2026-10-01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-ladder-51-above-90k-2026-10-01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sept-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-ladder-51-above-90k-2026-10-01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100101",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 nonfarm payrolls added",
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pins September payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 51% above 90K, only 45% above 100K, 28% above 125K.",
    "ADP's 90K private-sector print and Wall Street's 84K consensus both sit squarely in the ladder's modal band, markets broadly consistent with incoming data.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 9,950x day over day, signaling intense fresh attention ahead of the Friday BLS print.",
    "The sharp drop from 65% above 80K to 51% above 90K shows the market sees meaningful downside tail risk around the consensus estimate."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wall Street forecasts 84,000 September nonfarm payrolls ahead of Friday's BLS release, with ADP printing 90,000 private-sector jobs.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolves via BLS Employment Situation; volume spike confirms high event sensitivity heading into the release."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: The September jobs report will be released Friday. Here's what to expe",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100101 published 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-f1e078678b8… ← underlying event all signals →