SHEIN IPO tracks a venue premium on the major prediction desks

Name: SHEIN IPO tracks a venue premium on the major prediction desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-04T10:06:13+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 25% vs Kalshi 18%

record: CMSIG20260704DV04 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-858NYLKF97 | published: 2026-07-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices SHEIN IPO at 25%, Kalshi at 18%, a 7pp spread on the same year-end claim.
Polymarket is the higher side and carries roughly forty times Kalshi's volume.
Polymarket participants may be assigning greater weight to SHEIN's active regulatory navigation and reported listing preparations.
Claim resolves YES on a SHEIN public market debut before Jan 1, 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $0 kalshi_vol_24h: $2

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxipo-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xd6487ff71f26b698891f9b5aa361a4f8037d324b2b98327faa5675cca91f4eb7
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-SHEIN

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k18-p25/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k18-p25.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("shein-ipo-k18-p25")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260704DV04",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T10:06:13+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices SHEIN IPO at 25%, Kalshi at 18%, a 7pp spread on the same year-end claim.",
    "Polymarket is the higher side and carries roughly forty times Kalshi's volume.",
    "Polymarket participants may be assigning greater weight to SHEIN's active regulatory navigation and reported listing preparations.",
    "Claim resolves YES on a SHEIN public market debut before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-E7EE56C6C1); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 0,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 2.16
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxipo-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-SHEIN",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/shein-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:06:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260704DV04 published 2026-07-04T10:06:13+00:00 signature sha256-2bb2b8f9e03… ← underlying event all signals →