SHEIN IPO pricing stays near consensus across major desks

Name: SHEIN IPO pricing stays near consensus across major desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 91% vs Kalshi 84%

record: CMSIG20260729DV01 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-858NYLKF97 | published: 2026-07-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices SHEIN IPO completion at 84%, Polymarket at 91%, a 7pp gap.
Polymarket carries the higher probability and the larger book, roughly 4x Kalshi's cumulative volume.
Modest gap likely reflects differing resolution standards or timing ambiguity around listing venue rather than fundamental disagreement.
Resolves YES if SHEIN completes a public market listing before Jan 1, 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $136 kalshi_vol_24h: $295

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxipo-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xd6487ff71f26b698891f9b5aa361a4f8037d324b2b98327faa5675cca91f4eb7
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-SHEIN

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k84-p91/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k84-p91.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("shein-ipo-k84-p91")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260729DV01",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices SHEIN IPO completion at 84%, Polymarket at 91%, a 7pp gap.",
    "Polymarket carries the higher probability and the larger book, roughly 4x Kalshi's cumulative volume.",
    "Modest gap likely reflects differing resolution standards or timing ambiguity around listing venue rather than fundamental disagreement.",
    "Resolves YES if SHEIN completes a public market listing before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-E7EE56C6C1); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 135.703389,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 295.24
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxipo-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIPO-26-SHEIN",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/shein-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260729DV01 published 2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00 signature sha256-ed5272470ed… ← underlying event all signals →