Solana end-2026 price consensus anchors in the 100 to 150 dollar range

Name: Solana end-2026 price consensus anchors in the 100 to 150 dollar range
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026070208 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-24BW6LVF51 | published: 2026-07-02

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices 50% above $100 but only 26% above $150, placing the market-implied SOL year-end price in the $100-$150 range.
Solana's roughly 16% weekly gain is consistent with the distribution leaning toward the lower half of the $100-$150 band rather than higher strikes.
A separate Kalshi contract puts just 2% on Solana ending 2026 above $500, confirming the ladder's sharp drop-off above $150 as the consensus view.
Resolves via CF Benchmarks price feed on January 1, 2027; the settlement uses the CF Benchmarks reference rate, not spot exchange prices.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had declined, with Solana leading major cryptocurrencies up roughly 16% on the week.exa_search → coindesk.com · as_of 2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00
publisher: coindesk.com
published_at: 2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z
source_url: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's SOL ladder shows the market anchoring year-end expectations well below the $200 strikes despite the Warsh-driven crypto rally.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxsold26-27jan0100/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSOLD26-27JAN0100-T149.99

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sol-price-jan-1-2027-seen-at-100-150-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-02/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sol-price-jan-1-2027-seen-at-100-150-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-02.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sol-price-jan-1-2027-seen-at-100-150-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-02")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070208",
  "published_at": "2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-24BW6LVF51",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsold26-27jan0100",
  "event_question": "SOL price on January 1, 2027",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 50% above $100 but only 26% above $150, placing the market-implied SOL year-end price in the $100-$150 range.",
    "Solana's roughly 16% weekly gain is consistent with the distribution leaning toward the lower half of the $100-$150 band rather than higher strikes.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract puts just 2% on Solana ending 2026 above $500, confirming the ladder's sharp drop-off above $150 as the consensus view.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks price feed on January 1, 2027; the settlement uses the CF Benchmarks reference rate, not spot exchange prices."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had declined, with Solana leading major cryptocurrencies up roughly 16% on the week.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's SOL ladder shows the market anchoring year-end expectations well below the $200 strikes despite the Warsh-driven crypto rally."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxsold26-27jan0100/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXSOLD26-27JAN0100-T149.99",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: Ether, solana, dogecoin in the green after Warsh comments push bitcoin",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026070208 published 2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z signature sha256-c1730ed87e1… ← underlying event all signals →