Strait of Hormuz back to normal by December stays unlikely

Name: Strait of Hormuz back to normal by December stays unlikely
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 18%

record: CMSIG2026091907 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-19

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 18% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Houthi territorial gains and continued disruption of Saudi oil exports are consistent with the market's strong skepticism about a near-term normalization.
Separately, a US blockade of Iranian ports described in adjacent reporting reinforces the structural disruption narrative underpinning this pricing.
Resolution via uma_oracle; the contract's definition of 'normal' traffic levels is the key edge case, as partial recoveries may not meet the threshold.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Houthi forces in Yemen have captured strategic territory and are disrupting Saudi oil exports, threatening the global energy trade and broader Middle East stability.exa_search → The Christian Science Monitor · as_of 2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00
publisher: The Christian Science Monitor
published_at: 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; at 18% the contract prices persistent regional disruption as the base case through year-end.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-18-2026-09-19/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-18-2026-09-19.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-18-2026-09-19")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091907",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 18% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Houthi territorial gains and continued disruption of Saudi oil exports are consistent with the market's strong skepticism about a near-term normalization.",
    "Separately, a US blockade of Iranian ports described in adjacent reporting reinforces the structural disruption narrative underpinning this pricing.",
    "Resolution via uma_oracle; the contract's definition of 'normal' traffic levels is the key edge case, as partial recoveries may not meet the threshold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Christian Science Monitor",
          "source_url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Houthi forces in Yemen have captured strategic territory and are disrupting Saudi oil exports, threatening the global energy trade and broader Middle East stability.",
      "publisher": "The Christian Science Monitor",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; at 18% the contract prices persistent regional disruption as the base case through year-end."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Christian Science Monitor: Iran-backed Houthis are on the march in Yemen, risking Middle East sta",
      "url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091907 published 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-3ab349358b3… ← underlying event all signals →