Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays below 25%

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays below 25%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 24%

record: CMSIG2026092503 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices a 24% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.
Iran's explicit refusal to soften its Hormuz position during New York talks is consistent with the market's sub-25% pricing; no agreement appears imminent.
Russia and Iran's joint call for a diplomatic-only solution, reported separately, adds a veto dynamic that extends the timeline risk.
Resolves via UMA oracle; resolution requires observable normalization of commercial shipping traffic through the strait, not merely a political declaration.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran hardened its Hormuz stance at the UN General Assembly as New York diplomacy failed to produce a breakthrough, with Iran insisting the US must make the first move to end the war.exa_search → Hamza Hendawi · as_of 2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00
publisher: Hamza Hendawi
published_at: 2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z
source_url: https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket via UMA oracle; at 24%, the market reflects deep skepticism that New York-level diplomacy can bridge the gap before year-end.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-24-2026-09-25/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-24-2026-09-25.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-24-2026-09-25")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092503",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 24% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's explicit refusal to soften its Hormuz position during New York talks is consistent with the market's sub-25% pricing; no agreement appears imminent.",
    "Russia and Iran's joint call for a diplomatic-only solution, reported separately, adds a veto dynamic that extends the timeline risk.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; resolution requires observable normalization of commercial shipping traffic through the strait, not merely a political declaration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hamza Hendawi",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran hardened its Hormuz stance at the UN General Assembly as New York diplomacy failed to produce a breakthrough, with Iran insisting the US must make the first move to end the war.",
      "publisher": "Hamza Hendawi",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket via UMA oracle; at 24%, the market reflects deep skepticism that New York-level diplomacy can bridge the gap before year-end."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hamza Hendawi: Iran hardens Hormuz stance as New York diplomacy struggles for breakth",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092503 published 2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z signature sha256-5d0fd1cc917… ← underlying event all signals →