Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end sits near 50 percent

Name: Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end sits near 50 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 47%

record: CMSIG2026080106 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices 47% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.
Truce collapse and White House warnings of fresh Iran strikes push the resolution scenario further out, keeping the contract near but just below 50%.
At 47%, the Polymarket contract signals genuine two-way uncertainty, with five months remaining and an active military standoff as the key variable.
Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-ZP3JDLXZQ0 implies peak single-day transit calls in the 10-15 range, consistent with significantly reduced but not fully halted traffic.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US-Iran truce collapsed and the White House is weighing fresh strikes on Iran as Hormuz tanker attacks resume, raising new doubts about passage normalization.exa_search → indiatoday.in · as_of 2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00
publisher: indiatoday.in
published_at: 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic will require a clear, sustained return to pre-conflict transit levels, which escalating US-Iran military action makes uncertain.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-08-01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-08-01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-08-01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080106",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 47% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.",
    "Truce collapse and White House warnings of fresh Iran strikes push the resolution scenario further out, keeping the contract near but just below 50%.",
    "At 47%, the Polymarket contract signals genuine two-way uncertainty, with five months remaining and an active military standoff as the key variable.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-ZP3JDLXZQ0 implies peak single-day transit calls in the 10-15 range, consistent with significantly reduced but not fully halted traffic."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "indiatoday.in",
          "source_url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US-Iran truce collapsed and the White House is weighing fresh strikes on Iran as Hormuz tanker attacks resume, raising new doubts about passage normalization.",
      "publisher": "indiatoday.in",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic will require a clear, sustained return to pre-conflict transit levels, which escalating US-Iran military action makes uncertain."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "indiatoday.in: Trump Iran strikes: White House warns Tehran after Hormuz tanker attac",
      "url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080106 published 2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-3b80592f0ee… ← underlying event all signals →