Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays near 50-50

Name: Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays near 50-50
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 58%

record: CMSIG2026080205 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-08-02

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices 58% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
Trump's ceasefire signal and explicit mention of Hormuz reopening talks are consistent with the market moving above 50%, though Iran's warning of a decisive response keeps full pricing at bay.
Trading volume on related Fed funds contracts surged sharply this session, indicating broader macro repricing linked to the oil supply picture.
A separate contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at just 28% on Polymarket, highlighting the gap between a tactical pause and a durable deal.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: President Trump announced the US has agreed to cancel its Iran attack after deal parameters were reached, with Middle Eastern nations requesting time to finalize a Hormuz reopening agreement.exa_search → cbsnews.com · as_of 2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00
publisher: cbsnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 58% reflects cautious optimism: the ceasefire is real but the path to a signed, implemented Hormuz agreement by year-end remains uncertain.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-02/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-02.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-02")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080205",
  "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices 58% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Trump's ceasefire signal and explicit mention of Hormuz reopening talks are consistent with the market moving above 50%, though Iran's warning of a decisive response keeps full pricing at bay.",
    "Trading volume on related Fed funds contracts surged sharply this session, indicating broader macro repricing linked to the oil supply picture.",
    "A separate contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at just 28% on Polymarket, highlighting the gap between a tactical pause and a durable deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump announced the US has agreed to cancel its Iran attack after deal parameters were reached, with Middle Eastern nations requesting time to finalize a Hormuz reopening agreement.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 58% reflects cautious optimism: the ceasefire is real but the path to a signed, implemented Hormuz agreement by year-end remains uncertain."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Trump signals deal to end Iran war may be imminent, agrees to \"cancel",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080205 published 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-22f8bad060b… ← underlying event all signals →