Trump approval above 43 percent stays near fully priced out

Name: Trump approval above 43 percent stays near fully priced out
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092005 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33 | published: 2026-09-20

4-bullet brief | narrative

The approval rating ladder puts only 8% odds on Trump's rating exceeding 43%, with probability collapsing to 6% at 44% and staying flat through 50%, implying the market sees his approval firmly below 43%.
The record-high disapproval figures in the ABC/Ipsos poll are consistent with the ladder's near-zero pricing above 43%; the news and the market are aligned.
A companion ladder on Trump's approval falling below 33% prices that outcome at only 10%, implying the market consensus clusters his approval in the 33-43% range.
Resolution anchors to a named approval-rating polling aggregator; no single poll is sufficient, smoothing out any one-off outlier reading.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found two-thirds of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, with Trump's disapproval hitting new records.exa_search → ABC News · as_of 2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00
publisher: ABC News
published_at: 2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z
source_url: https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder distributes probability across approval level strikes; current pricing firmly clusters Trump's approval in the low-to-mid 30s range with no path above 43%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-above-43-ladder-prices-below-8-2026-09-20/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-above-43-ladder-prices-below-8-2026-09-20.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-approval-above-43-ladder-prices-below-8-2026-09-20")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092005",
  "published_at": "2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Trump approval rating level",
  "bullets": [
    "The approval rating ladder puts only 8% odds on Trump's rating exceeding 43%, with probability collapsing to 6% at 44% and staying flat through 50%, implying the market sees his approval firmly below 43%.",
    "The record-high disapproval figures in the ABC/Ipsos poll are consistent with the ladder's near-zero pricing above 43%; the news and the market are aligned.",
    "A companion ladder on Trump's approval falling below 33% prices that outcome at only 10%, implying the market consensus clusters his approval in the 33-43% range.",
    "Resolution anchors to a named approval-rating polling aggregator; no single poll is sufficient, smoothing out any one-off outlier reading."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found two-thirds of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, with Trump's disapproval hitting new records.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distributes probability across approval level strikes; current pricing firmly clusters Trump's approval in the low-to-mid 30s range with no path above 43%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Two-thirds of Americans say country is headed in the wrong direction:",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092005 published 2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z signature sha256-ee3d41eb6e9… ← underlying event all signals →