Trump leaving presidency before 2027 remains a long shot

Name: Trump leaving presidency before 2027 remains a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 6%

record: CMSIG2026081507 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1 | published: 2026-08-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts only 6% probability on Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
Republican pressure over the Iran war and midterm fears is a notable political stress signal, but the market is not pricing meaningful removal or resignation risk.
The 6% price suggests markets view the Iran war backlash as an electoral problem for Republicans rather than an existential threat to the Trump presidency.
Resolution via UMA oracle on any departure from office; the low probability holds regardless of the Iran conflict trajectory.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Growing MAGA pressure on Trump to exit the Iran war amid warnings of severe midterm political consequences.exa_search → usatoday.com · as_of 2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00
publisher: usatoday.com
published_at: 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; at 6%, the market strongly dismisses near-term presidential succession scenarios despite political friction.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/trump-out-as-president-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-08-15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-08-15.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-08-15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081507",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 6% probability on Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Republican pressure over the Iran war and midterm fears is a notable political stress signal, but the market is not pricing meaningful removal or resignation risk.",
    "The 6% price suggests markets view the Iran war backlash as an electoral problem for Republicans rather than an existential threat to the Trump presidency.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle on any departure from office; the low probability holds regardless of the Iran conflict trajectory."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usatoday.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Growing MAGA pressure on Trump to exit the Iran war amid warnings of severe midterm political consequences.",
      "publisher": "usatoday.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; at 6%, the market strongly dismisses near-term presidential succession scenarios despite political friction."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/trump-out-as-president-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usatoday.com: Republicans push Trump to find path out of Iran war as midterms near",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081507 published 2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-c2bfd3818a1… ← underlying event all signals →