Trump-Putin meeting by year-end stays heavily favored

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110905",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:08:26.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TK9WNXXYF6",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-meets-with-putin-by",
  "event_question": "Will Trump meet with Putin by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices an 88% chance Trump meets Putin before the end of 2026.",
    "News of a planned APEC meeting next week is consistent with the market's strong lean toward resolution as 'yes.'",
    "With a specific meeting reportedly scheduled for next week, the remaining 12% likely prices logistical or political cancellation risk.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; cancellation of the APEC summit or a Trump schedule change would be the primary downside scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Gael Camba",
          "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/09/donald-trump-plans-to-meet-vladimir-putin-and-xi-jinping-in-china-to-discuss-ending-iran-w",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Reports indicate US President Donald Trump plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at an APEC summit in China next week.",
      "publisher": "Gael Camba",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:08:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/09/donald-trump-plans-to-meet-vladimir-putin-and-xi-jinping-in-china-to-discuss-ending-iran-w"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; a confirmed next-week meeting would push this near full pricing."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/trump-meets-with-putin-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Gael Camba: Donald Trump plans to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China to d",
      "url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/09/donald-trump-plans-to-meet-vladimir-putin-and-xi-jinping-in-china-to-discuss-ending-iran-w",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:08:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}