US-Iran invasion pricing wavers amid active Gulf combat

Name: US-Iran invasion pricing wavers amid active Gulf combat
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 18%

record: CMSIG2026071301 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-WD982793G1 | published: 2026-07-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 18% on a US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, despite active US air strikes across dozens of Iranian sites.
Markets distinguish air-strike campaign from full invasion; current news is consistent with limited kinetic engagement, not occupation.
Companion Polymarket contract on Iranian regime survival has no active price, leaving the invasion-vs-regime-change spread unresolved.
Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; contract language likely turns on ground troop deployment, not air strikes alone.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes across the Gulf as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and widened attacks on Gulf states including Oman.exa_search → straitstimes.com · as_of 2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00
publisher: straitstimes.com
published_at: 2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z
source_url: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 18% prices the invasion scenario as a tail risk, not a base case, even as fourth-round US strikes and Hormuz closure dominate headlines.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invade-iran-by-2027-polymarket-18-2026-07-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invade-iran-by-2027-polymarket-18-2026-07-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-invade-iran-by-2027-polymarket-18-2026-07-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071301",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 18% on a US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, despite active US air strikes across dozens of Iranian sites.",
    "Markets distinguish air-strike campaign from full invasion; current news is consistent with limited kinetic engagement, not occupation.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Iranian regime survival has no active price, leaving the invasion-vs-regime-change spread unresolved.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; contract language likely turns on ground troop deployment, not air strikes alone."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes across the Gulf as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and widened attacks on Gulf states including Oman.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 18% prices the invasion scenario as a tail risk, not a base case, even as fourth-round US strikes and Hormuz closure dominate headlines."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Iran widens attacks on US bases in Gulf, Hormuz tensions lift oil pric",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/iran-escalates-attacks-on-us-bases-in-gulf-states-warns-of-more-incidents-in-strait",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071301 published 2026-07-13T06:50:28.000Z signature sha256-db0e3378f6e… ← underlying event all signals →