US Iran invasion pricing holds low as diplomacy advances

Name: US Iran invasion pricing holds low as diplomacy advances
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 13%

record: CMSIG2026070106 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-WD982793G1 | published: 2026-07-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prediction market prices 13% on a US invasion of Iran before 2027.
Qatar's 'positive progress' report and the Vance 'no return to war' statement are consistent with the low invasion probability, markets are not pricing imminent escalation.
A companion Kalshi contract at 6% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader signals markets see regime-change outcomes as even less likely than military action.
Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution process; the trigger requires a formal US military invasion, not airstrikes or proxy action.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded with Qatar reporting positive progress, with Vice President JD Vance signaling no return to war unless necessary and a communication channel established.exa_search → Al Jazeera Staff · as_of 2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00
publisher: Al Jazeera Staff
published_at: 2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 13% on US invasion of Iran reflects markets treating Doha diplomacy as a de-escalation signal, though the tail risk is non-trivial.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-07-01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-07-01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-07-01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070106",
  "published_at": "2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the United States invade Iran before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prediction market prices 13% on a US invasion of Iran before 2027.",
    "Qatar's 'positive progress' report and the Vance 'no return to war' statement are consistent with the low invasion probability, markets are not pricing imminent escalation.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract at 6% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader signals markets see regime-change outcomes as even less likely than military action.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution process; the trigger requires a formal US military invasion, not airstrikes or proxy action."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US-Iran indirect talks in Doha concluded with Qatar reporting positive progress, with Vice President JD Vance signaling no return to war unless necessary and a communication channel established.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 13% on US invasion of Iran reflects markets treating Doha diplomacy as a de-escalation signal, though the tail risk is non-trivial."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: US-Iran negotiations: What’s the latest? | US-Israel war on Iran News",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/1/us-iran-negotiations-whats-the-latest",
      "published_at": "2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026070106 published 2026-07-01T08:38:25.000Z signature sha256-a7e3006188f… ← underlying event all signals →