Traders write off Netanyahu as next leader out before 2027

Name: Traders write off Netanyahu as next leader out before 2027
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

0% · $2.4M 24h

record: CMSIG20260704VS00 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4 | published: 2026-07-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Price at 0%, market assigns near-zero probability Netanyahu exits power before 2027.
24h volume $2.4M is 66% of all-time activity, signaling a concentrated single-session conviction flush.
Fresh capital may be absorbing or closing speculative positions opened around coalition pressure or legal proceedings.
Contract resolves if Netanyahu is first among tracked leaders to lose office before Jan 1 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $2.39M

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x1cd1a66943b214de90027ce888621fc4e53f5c46351809e51dbad0635b7fe9b7

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-lead-vol-2388254/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-lead-vol-2388254.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-lead-vol-2388254")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260704VS00",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4",
  "target_event_slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
  "event_question": "Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding Viktor Orbán?",
  "bullets": [
    "Price at 0%, market assigns near-zero probability Netanyahu exits power before 2027.",
    "24h volume $2.4M is 66% of all-time activity, signaling a concentrated single-session conviction flush.",
    "Fresh capital may be absorbing or closing speculative positions opened around coalition pressure or legal proceedings.",
    "Contract resolves if Netanyahu is first among tracked leaders to lose office before Jan 1 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 2388254.3195
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260704VS00 published 2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00 signature sha256-4de4d1a49c3… ← underlying event all signals →