Abbas written off as next leader out, capital stacks at zero

Name: Abbas written off as next leader out, capital stacks at zero
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

0% · $609K 24h

record: CMSIG20260704VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4 | published: 2026-07-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Price at 0%, market firmly rejects Abbas as the next leader to exit before 2027.
24h volume $609K represents 76% of all-time flow, the heaviest single-session concentration in this contract.
Elevated attention may reflect spillover from Netanyahu contract activity and linked Middle East leadership positioning.
Resolution requires Abbas to be the first named leader to depart office before Jan 1 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $609.2K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xaffa29d449f3b5a46d933bc412f7ae823e9f5216257c8c6e5bd695a9e2c0392b

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-ou-vol-609232/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-ou-vol-609232.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-mahmoud-abbas-be-the-next-leader-ou-vol-609232")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260704VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4",
  "target_event_slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
  "event_question": "Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding Viktor Orbán?",
  "bullets": [
    "Price at 0%, market firmly rejects Abbas as the next leader to exit before 2027.",
    "24h volume $609K represents 76% of all-time flow, the heaviest single-session concentration in this contract.",
    "Elevated attention may reflect spillover from Netanyahu contract activity and linked Middle East leadership positioning.",
    "Resolution requires Abbas to be the first named leader to depart office before Jan 1 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 609232.271332
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260704VS01 published 2026-07-04T10:05:37+00:00 signature sha256-28b77183d80… ← underlying event all signals →