Buyers back Flanagan for MN Democratic Senate nomination at 75%

Name: Buyers back Flanagan for MN Democratic Senate nomination at 75%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-11T08:50:18+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

75% · $43K 24h

record: CMSIG20260811VS05 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-NNCYHQS2C4 | published: 2026-08-11

4-bullet brief | narrative

Flanagan priced at 75% to win the Minnesota Democratic Senate nomination on Polymarket.
$43K in 24h, 26% of all-time, marks a notable step-up in trading activity on this race.
Attention likely driven by MN Senate field developments or Flanagan campaign news firming her position.
Resolves YES if Flanagan is named the Democratic Senate nominee for Minnesota in 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $42.8K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x125d64e41a8b3225d81e84ec1fbeb58b1d8091fa9d54a9f500e01a00586baf9a

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-peggy-flanagan-be-the-democratic-no-vol-42761/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-peggy-flanagan-be-the-democratic-no-vol-42761.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-peggy-flanagan-be-the-democratic-no-vol-42761")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260811VS05",
  "published_at": "2026-08-11T08:50:18+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NNCYHQS2C4",
  "target_event_slug": "minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary be won by August 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Flanagan priced at 75% to win the Minnesota Democratic Senate nomination on Polymarket.",
    "$43K in 24h, 26% of all-time, marks a notable step-up in trading activity on this race.",
    "Attention likely driven by MN Senate field developments or Flanagan campaign news firming her position.",
    "Resolves YES if Flanagan is named the Democratic Senate nominee for Minnesota in 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 42761.145604
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary be won by ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:50:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260811VS05 published 2026-08-11T08:50:18+00:00 signature sha256-b6c870288c4… ← underlying event all signals →