Democratic Vermont governor odds slip to 18% on fresh volume

Name: Democratic Vermont governor odds slip to 18% on fresh volume
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-25T07:48:30+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

18% · $11K 24h

record: CMSIG20260925VS04 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-ZSNM57MQS0 | published: 2026-09-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices Democrats at 18% to win the Vermont governorship, the mirror contract to the 84% Republican read.
$11K in 24h is 60% of all-time volume for this contract, the most active session on record.
The simultaneous surge on both the Republican and Democratic Vermont governor contracts points to new participants entering both sides.
Resolves on the Vermont gubernatorial election in November 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $11.3K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/govpartyvt-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYVT-26-D

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-govern-vol-11319/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-govern-vol-11319.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-democratic-party-win-the-govern-vol-11319")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260925VS04",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T07:48:30+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZSNM57MQS0",
  "target_event_slug": "govpartyvt-26",
  "event_question": "Vermont Governor winner?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democrats at 18% to win the Vermont governorship, the mirror contract to the 84% Republican read.",
    "$11K in 24h is 60% of all-time volume for this contract, the most active session on record.",
    "The simultaneous surge on both the Republican and Democratic Vermont governor contracts points to new participants entering both sides.",
    "Resolves on the Vermont gubernatorial election in November 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 11319.01
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/govpartyvt-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/GOVPARTYVT-26-D",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Vermont Governor winner?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartyvt-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T07:48:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260925VS04 published 2026-09-25T07:48:30+00:00 signature sha256-0e5032170d1… ← underlying event all signals →