Fed October hold stays the consensus bet at 62%

Name: Fed October hold stays the consensus bet at 62%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

62% · $38K 24h

record: CMSIG20260915VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320 | published: 2026-09-15

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a 62% chance the Fed holds rates unchanged at 0bps in October 2026, a bare majority conviction.
39% of all-time volume landed in 24 hours, making this the market's single heaviest session on record.
A September macro print, CPI, payrolls, or Fed speaker, likely catalyzed fresh positioning ahead of the October decision.
Resolution is the October 2026 FOMC meeting outcome.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $38.5K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfeddecision-26oct/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-38455/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-38455.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-0-vol-38455")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260915VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FPF77GZ320",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfeddecision-26oct",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 62% chance the Fed holds rates unchanged at 0bps in October 2026, a bare majority conviction.",
    "39% of all-time volume landed in 24 hours, making this the market's single heaviest session on record.",
    "A September macro print, CPI, payrolls, or Fed speaker, likely catalyzed fresh positioning ahead of the October decision.",
    "Resolution is the October 2026 FOMC meeting outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 38455.36
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfeddecision-26oct/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October 202",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26oct",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260915VS01 published 2026-09-15T13:06:46+00:00 signature sha256-79a9765ff1d… ← underlying event all signals →