Traders write off US CPI staying above 3.8%

Name: Traders write off US CPI staying above 3.8%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

23% · CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED) 4.2%

record: CMSIG20260627BD00 | category: vs-benchmark-drift | target: CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4 | published: 2026-06-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices only 23% chance CPI ends above 3.8% for the year ending June 2026.
FRED CPI year-over-year currently sits at 4.2%, already above the 3.8% threshold.
Market implies near-certain drop below 3.8% despite the live print clearing that bar.
Resolves against the official June 2026 CPI year-over-year release.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] benchmark_divergence

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.78 / 1.00
prompt_template: benchmark_drift_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-3-vs-bench/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-3-vs-bench.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-3-vs-bench")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260627BD00",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00",
  "detection": "benchmark_drift",
  "category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "Will the year-over-year Consumer Price Index inflation rate in June 2026 be below 3%?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 23% chance CPI ends above 3.8% for the year ending June 2026.",
    "FRED CPI year-over-year currently sits at 4.2%, already above the 3.8% threshold.",
    "Market implies near-certain drop below 3.8% despite the live print clearing that bar.",
    "Resolves against the official June 2026 CPI year-over-year release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "benchmark_divergence",
      "provenance": "PM price direct from kalshi API; benchmark CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED) = 4.2%",
      "field_provenance": {
        "pm_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "benchmark_value": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED)",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.78,
    "prompt_template": "benchmark_drift_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CPI inflation, year-over-year (FRED): 4.2%",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "benchmark_api",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260627BD00 published 2026-06-27T10:04:04+00:00 signature sha256-fe8b43f1478… ← underlying event all signals →