Heavy trading tests United Russia's 295, 309 seat range at slim odds

Name: Heavy trading tests United Russia's 295, 309 seat range at slim odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

5% · $10K 24h

record: CMSIG20260908VS03 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5 | published: 2026-09-08

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices this seat-band at 5%, traders see a higher or lower outcome as far more likely.
$10.4K in 24h is 37% of all-time volume, a notable spike for a low-probability band contract.
Volume alongside the adjacent 280, 294 band suggests traders are mapping probability across multiple Duma outcome buckets ahead of the election.
Contract resolves on United Russia's official seat count in the next State Duma election.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $10.4K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x0a9bb5f9c32f57b1683bec4170da0a1116876f2bf0665a1ec9bf6c6db76d2f57

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-3-vol-10358/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-3-vol-10358.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-3-vol-10358")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260908VS03",
  "published_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "event_question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices this seat-band at 5%, traders see a higher or lower outcome as far more likely.",
    "$10.4K in 24h is 37% of all-time volume, a notable spike for a low-probability band contract.",
    "Volume alongside the adjacent 280, 294 band suggests traders are mapping probability across multiple Duma outcome buckets ahead of the election.",
    "Contract resolves on United Russia's official seat count in the next State Duma election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10358.720291
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260908VS03 published 2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00 signature sha256-a47c8b6d275… ← underlying event all signals →