CLEARMARKET SIGNAL // WIRE LEDGER
Atomic wire bulletins · prediction-market surveillance · polymarket, kalshi, others · daily · permanent URLs
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wire feed | 553 active, descending chrono
| 2026-09-05 · TODAY [ 9 wires ] | |||||
| 11:35 UTC | CMSIG20260905DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Arc token-before-2027 trades far apart across venues Polymarket 15% vs Kalshi 37% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 11:35 UTC | CMSIG20260905DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | US federal stake in GlobalFoundries carries a premium on one venue Kalshi 84% vs Polymarket 93% | KAL · POLY | html · json |
| 11:35 UTC | CMSIG20260905VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back the Democrat in PA-7 as odds stay above 75% 82% · $21K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:35 UTC | CMSIG20260905VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Ceasefire odds by Oct 31 draw heavy trading at long-shot pricing 19% · $365K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:35 UTC | CMSIG20260905VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bloom Energy S&P 500 inclusion by Q3 locks near certainty on heavy flow 99% · $21K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:35 UTC | CMSIG20260905VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republican lock on GA-11 holds through a volume surge at 95% 95% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090508 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays below 25 percent Polymarket 26% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090501 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored after jobs print Polymarket 71% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090506 | NEWS-CYCLE | Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 10% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-09-04 · YESTERDAY [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260904DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Discord IPO odds split across the major prediction desks Polymarket 18% vs Kalshi 25% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260904VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Foulkes RI Democratic nomination priced as a certainty 99% · $68K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260904VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs Democrat in MO-05 at 84% 84% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260904VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | VA-2 Democratic odds hold at 83% through a volume test 83% · $17K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260904VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republican NC Senate odds slip to 9% on fresh volume 9% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:33 UTC | CMSIG2026090405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Blue wave in 2026 holds above 75 percent on Kalshi Kalshi 76% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 13% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090402 | NEWS-CYCLE | Markets put short odds on a rate hike above 4 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090404 | NEWS-CYCLE | Midterm elections happening on schedule stays near certain Kalshi 90% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Odds on Zelensky leaving office before 2027 remain a long shot Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090403 | NEWS-CYCLE | Unemployment topping 4.5 percent before 2027 stays a long shot Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-09-03 · 2 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Pappas locks up NH Senate Democratic nod at 97% 97% · $80K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | DiLorenzo leads NH-01 GOP field at 76% on Polymarket 76% · $17K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | AI Arena 1520 score by year-end stays a heavy favorite 92% · $30K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back AI hitting 1520 score before September 30 93% · $21K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fréchette Quebec premier odds sit at 32% on fresh bets 32% · $12K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Maura Sullivan holds at 83% for NH-01 Democratic spot 83% · $14K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Maduro 60-year sentence odds hold at 34% through surge 34% · $36K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:31 UTC | CMSIG20260903VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | United Russia 310-324 seat band trades under 25% 24% · $23K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090301 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed hold in September stays near fully priced Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090307 | NEWS-CYCLE | GOP South Carolina 7th District seat stays heavily favored Polymarket 96% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-09-02 · 3 DAYS AGO [ 12 wires ] | |||||
| 12:30 UTC | CMSIG20260902DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | Ramp IPO before 2027 trades far apart despite low overall odds Polymarket 8% vs Kalshi 13% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | A September Fed hike stays a long shot at 1% 1% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fresh volume backs Neal as MA-01 Democratic pick at 99% 99% · $62K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Lynch MA-08 Democratic nomination holds near certainty 99% · $242K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back rates staying above 3.50% after the Fed 98% · $212K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Waymo Denver launch before Jan 1 draws heavy backing 99% · $99K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Waymo San Diego odds hold at 86% through a volume test 86% · $39K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260902VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Waymo Tampa launch by Jan 1 holds 96% amid volume spike 96% · $23K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090207 | NEWS-CYCLE | Full US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot at 15% Polymarket 15% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090208 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin outperforming gold and the S&P 500 in 2026 stays unlikely Polymarket 17% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090205 | NEWS-CYCLE | Republicans heavily favored to win House control in 2026 Polymarket 90% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026090205 | NEWS-CYCLE | US debt default by 2027 stays priced as a remote tail risk Polymarket 2% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-31 · 5 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 15:48 UTC | CMSIG20260831VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats' Massachusetts Senate hold trades at near-certainty 96% · $12K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 15:48 UTC | CMSIG20260831VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SpaceX August launch count trades near certainty on Kalshi 99% · $58K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 15:48 UTC | CMSIG20260831VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Flávio Bolsonaro third-place finish stays a long shot at 1% 1% · $15K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 15:48 UTC | CMSIG20260831VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | OpenAI IPO day $750B, $1T valuation band trades at long odds 11% · $10K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 15:48 UTC | CMSIG20260831VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back the GOP hold on Florida's governorship 81% · $237K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 15:48 UTC | CMSIG20260831VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs the GOP hold in Maryland's 1st District 92% · $12K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026083103 | NEWS-CYCLE | Unemployment rate seen holding near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-29 · 7 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 13:34 UTC | CMSIG20260829VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Manzur NH Senate nomination trades as a long shot at 6% 6% · $13K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 13:34 UTC | CMSIG20260829VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back the Alaska governor primary favorite at 84% 84% · $36K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 13:34 UTC | CMSIG20260829VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Prymorske capture by year-end stays a long shot at 7% 7% · $21K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:09 UTC | CMSIG2026082908 | NEWS-CYCLE | ETH above $2,750 by August 31 stays near zero odds Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082901 | NEWS-CYCLE | Markets put long odds on Fed rate above 4 percent after next meeting Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-28 · 8 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 19:52 UTC | CMSIG20260828VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | FW winning most Mecklenburg-Vorpommern seats priced at zero 0% · $26K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 19:52 UTC | CMSIG20260828VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Williams into Alaska's top-four runoff 89% · $156K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 15:46 UTC | CMSIG2026082808 | NEWS-CYCLE | Putin leaving Russia's presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 7% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082802 | NEWS-CYCLE | Odds of outsized Fed cut this year stay near zero Kalshi 5% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082803 | NEWS-CYCLE | Payroll odds stay near even around 70K-80K jobs for October Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082803 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-27 · 9 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 18:47 UTC | CMSIG20260827DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Economy-end-2026 outlook carries a premium across venues Polymarket 61% vs Kalshi 55% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 18:47 UTC | CMSIG20260827VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 compute above $2.00 in August stays a near-certainty 99% · $49K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 18:47 UTC | CMSIG20260827VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Stefany Shaheen NH-01 Democratic nominee race stays wide open 41% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 18:47 UTC | CMSIG20260827VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Pennsylvania governor odds hold for Democrats on fresh volume 95% · $29K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 18:47 UTC | CMSIG20260827VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 compute above $3.50 in August draws heavy late bets 99% · $31K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 18:47 UTC | CMSIG20260827VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republican PA governor odds slip to near-zero 2% · $18K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082707 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin replacing SHA-256 before 2027 stays near zero Polymarket 2% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082707 | NEWS-CYCLE | Republican odds in Pennsylvania 14th stay a long shot at 5 percent Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-26 · 10 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 08:38 UTC | CMSIG20260826DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | Anduril IPO before 2027 trades far apart on the major desks Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 5% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082608 | NEWS-CYCLE | National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 10% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-25 · 11 DAYS AGO [ 12 wires ] | |||||
| 20:37 UTC | CMSIG2026082506 | NEWS-CYCLE | Crypto bill Senate vote count odds stay below 50 votes Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 14:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082504 | NEWS-CYCLE | August unemployment rate priced near 4.0-4.1%, odds split Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 08:38 UTC | CMSIG20260825DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | Ripple IPO before 2027 trades far apart on the major desks Polymarket 5% vs Kalshi 10% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260825VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders pile into Ohio governor as Democrats lead at 57% 57% · $145K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260825VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | BTC above $80K by Aug 31 draws near-certain odds 99% · $265K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260825VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | A $95K Bitcoin by year-end stays a coin-flip low 40% · $81K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260825VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats heavily backed to take NE-2 at 90% 90% · $11K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260825VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | N'Kiyla Thomas backed as Oklahoma Dem Senate pick at 92% 92% · $10K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260825VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold near zero that United Russia loses seats below 280 3% · $31K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082507 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays a long shot at 33% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082503 | NEWS-CYCLE | September unemployment rate odds hold near 4.2-4.3% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082504 | NEWS-CYCLE | Democrats sweeping four core Senate races sits near 50% Kalshi 55% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-24 · 12 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 08:42 UTC | CMSIG20260824VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Havrylivka capture by Dec 31 stays a long shot at 6% 6% · $18K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:15 UTC | CMSIG2026082407 | NEWS-CYCLE | US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 12% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-23 · 13 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 08:41 UTC | CMSIG2026082308 | NEWS-CYCLE | Kansas Senate seat stays heavily favored for Republicans Kalshi 81% | KAL | html · json |
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260823VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold near 50% as $120 Solana bet draws heavy trading 52% · $13K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260823VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back long odds on Ukraine retaking Myrnohrad 6% · $36K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-22 · 14 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260822VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fresh volume returns to the BTC $60K dip-by-year-end bet 36% · $88K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260822VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Long-shot Solana $140 by year-end draws heavy trading 27% · $14K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260822VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republicans given almost no shot at TX-30 as volume piles in 2% · $23K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260822VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | XRP above $1.60 by Aug 31 is a near-certain bet 99% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260822VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back XRP clearing $1.70 by Aug 31 at heavy odds 84% · $12K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082204 | NEWS-CYCLE | Broader 2026 tariff expansion holds below 50 percent Kalshi 34% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082205 | NEWS-CYCLE | US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine stays a long shot Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-21 · 15 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 08:35 UTC | CMSIG20260821VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin reaching $85K by year-end stays the base case 59% · $76K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:35 UTC | CMSIG20260821VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | NATO-Russia clash by Aug 31 stays a long shot at 3% 3% · $1.1M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:35 UTC | CMSIG20260821VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | NATO-Russia clash by Oct 31 holds low at 14% 14% · $71K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:35 UTC | CMSIG20260821VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | BTC above $77.5K by Aug 31 draws heavy backing at 82% 82% · $135K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:35 UTC | CMSIG20260821VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | BTC above $82.5K by Aug 31 sits at a coin-flip, 47% 47% · $61K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:35 UTC | CMSIG20260821VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats favored to hold Wisconsin governor at 81% 81% · $69K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082108 | NEWS-CYCLE | North Korea invasion of South Korea stays near zero odds Polymarket 3% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-20 · 16 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ] | |||||
| 08:33 UTC | CMSIG20260820VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds on a U.S.-Canada trade deal before 2027 stay low 22% · $13K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:33 UTC | CMSIG20260820VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | BTC above $70K by Aug 31 stays a heavy favorite 90% · $308K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:33 UTC | CMSIG20260820VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders split evenly on BTC clearing $72.5K by Aug 31 46% · $71K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:33 UTC | CMSIG20260820VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | BTC at $75K by Aug 31 stays a long shot at 20% 20% · $31K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:33 UTC | CMSIG20260820VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back Ethereum reaching $2,500 before year-end 74% · $26K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:33 UTC | CMSIG20260820VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading tests the ETH $3,000 year-end level 37% · $16K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 06:38 UTC | CMSIG2026082001 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $70K stays heavily favored through August Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082007 | NEWS-CYCLE | Georgia Senate Republican win remains a heavy long shot Polymarket 7% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026082004 | NEWS-CYCLE | New US country embargo by August stays a long shot at 16% Kalshi 16% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-19 · 17 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Applied Intuition IPO pricing decouples on the major desks Polymarket 16% vs Kalshi 9% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fishback 3% Florida floor fully priced, volume hits landmark 100% · $121K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Barlow Wyoming GOP governor nod trades at certainty 100% · $111K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Second Alaska governor primary outcome holds at 91% 91% · $38K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Alaska top-four governor primary winner priced as certain 100% · $40K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | CA-14 special election winner trading near certainty 97% · $50K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fishback 10% Florida vote share locked in at full odds 100% · $590K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fishback 5% Florida bar priced as certain after primary 100% · $143K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:32 UTC | CMSIG20260819VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Jay Collins second-place Florida finish holds at 99% 99% · $87K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:30 UTC | CMSIG2026081907 | NEWS-CYCLE | Republican wins Florida House district FL-10 stays heavily favored Polymarket 94% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081906 | NEWS-CYCLE | Democrats keep long odds on Florida 15th despite progressive wins Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-18 · 18 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ] | |||||
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Vindman FL Senate Democratic nom holds firm at 91% 91% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Donalds FL GOP nod priced as settled at 99% 99% · $2.1M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back Donalds FL nomination as odds touch 99% 99% · $281K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Lauf FL-19 GOP nomination priced in at 90% 90% · $15K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fishback FL governor 2nd-place odds slip to 21% 21% · $19K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Randy Fine FL-06 GOP slot holds near-certain at 98% 98% · $54K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:31 UTC | CMSIG20260818VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | A Zelenskyy-Putin China meeting before 2027 stays at 0% 0% · $23K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 07:58 UTC | CMSIG2026081807 | NEWS-CYCLE | WTI oil by year-end priced in the $80-$85 range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081808 | NEWS-CYCLE | US court ruling the 2020 election fraudulent remains a long shot Polymarket 10% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-17 · 19 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 08:38 UTC | CMSIG20260817VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | OpenAI IPO by Aug 31 trades as a decided miss 0% · $57K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:38 UTC | CMSIG20260817VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Chalifoux FL-09 GOP nominee odds hold under 25% 16% · $16K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081708 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $42.5K through August stays near full pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081704 | NEWS-CYCLE | Georgia governor race winner odds hold near even Polymarket 38% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081707 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump approval odds of dropping below 33 percent build Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-16 · 20 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 08:24 UTC | CMSIG20260816DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | Recession-state odds build a spread on the major prediction desks Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 11% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-15 · 21 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 22:22 UTC | CMSIG2026081507 | NEWS-CYCLE | Which state votes first in 2028 Democratic primary stays near 50% Kalshi 56% | KAL | html · json |
| 08:22 UTC | CMSIG20260815VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats trail in Iowa Senate but odds stay close to 50% 45% · $119K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:22 UTC | CMSIG20260815VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Ukraine coup odds hold low at 8% through a volume rise 8% · $45K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:22 UTC | CMSIG20260815VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Ohio Senate race sits at 47% as fresh volume tests the line 47% · $119K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:22 UTC | CMSIG20260815VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republicans stay long shots in Wisconsin governor race at 23% 23% · $72K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081506 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 10% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081507 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump leaving presidency before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 6% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-14 · 22 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 15:41 UTC | CMSIG2026081403 | NEWS-CYCLE | Recession by end of 2026 stays near 50% despite soft-landing talk Polymarket 53% | POLY | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republicans lead the Iowa Senate race at 57% 57% · $160K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed September hike stays a long shot at 28% 28% · $166K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Count Binface 20% vote share, near certain at 99% 99% · $26K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | DFL holds strong Minnesota Senate lead at 89% 89% · $15K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Barlow leads Wyoming GOP governor primary at 77% 77% · $30K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Degenfelder trails Barlow in Wyoming primary at 22% 22% · $16K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:04 UTC | CMSIG20260814VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | TX-15 House race tightens with GOP at 40% 40% · $88K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:20 UTC | CMSIG2026081408 | NEWS-CYCLE | US national Ethereum reserve before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081404 | NEWS-CYCLE | Strait of Hormuz transit traffic stays heavily discounted below 40 calls Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-13 · 23 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | TX-15 House seat draws buyers below 50% on the Dem side 45% · $83K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Nevada governor odds lean Republican as fresh volume tests the Dem line 41% · $62K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fauci criminal charge odds sit at the line on fresh volume 49% · $32K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | DeepSeek topping AI rankings by year-end draws fresh long-shot volume 16% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Leavitt exit before 2027 priced as near-certain 99% · $219K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back long odds against Lula placing second in round one 7% · $78K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260813VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Russia full Drobysheve capture by year-end stays a long shot 12% · $29K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081307 | NEWS-CYCLE | US recession by end of 2026 stays a long shot at 8% Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-12 · 24 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260812VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Crowley locks up Wisconsin Dem governor nod 100% · $5.7M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260812VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Graham to lead SC Senate primary round one 99% · $766K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260812VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Graham stays the favorite to win SC Republican Senate primary 73% · $623K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260812VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back Democrats to flip WI-3 in a thin market 63% · $32K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260812VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds favor a positive July CPI print on fresh volume 63% · $171K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:08 UTC | CMSIG20260812VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Crowley margin contract trades near certainty after primary 99% · $76K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081208 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump declaring election interference emergency stays below 35% Polymarket 32% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081203 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed action between June and September stays below 50% odds Polymarket 35% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081204 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iowa governor-senate same-party combo stays below 50% Kalshi 35% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026081205 | NEWS-CYCLE | New Hampshire same-party governor-senate outcome stays favored Kalshi 71% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-10 · 26 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 09:15 UTC | CMSIG20260810VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | July CPI deflation floor bet holds near certainty at 98% 98% · $12K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:15 UTC | CMSIG20260810VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fishback Florida 1% threshold locked in at full odds 100% · $259K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:15 UTC | CMSIG20260810VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back away from the 1.3, 1.5% Eurozone band at zero 0% · $12K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:15 UTC | CMSIG20260810VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Low-inflation 1.0, 1.2% band draws fresh bets at long-shot odds 2% · $13K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:15 UTC | CMSIG20260810VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | ECB's 2% target band stays a long shot on Polymarket 1% · $21K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-09 · 27 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260809VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Todd Blanche DAG exit before 2027 priced near certain 98% · $150K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260809VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices above $3.98 priced at 99% on Kalshi 99% · $13K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260809VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas above $4.00 stays a live bet at 82% 82% · $10K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260809VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Ohio Senate race sits at a coin-flip 49% 49% · $133K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260809VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders lock in Ed Case as Hawaii-1 nominee at 100% 100% · $84K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:37 UTC | CMSIG20260809VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats hold Illinois governorship at 94% odds 94% · $15K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-08 · 28 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 08:36 UTC | CMSIG20260808VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold firm on Trump's AG pick getting confirmed 99% · $67K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:36 UTC | CMSIG20260808VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back the Fed holding rates flat in September 64% · $376K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:36 UTC | CMSIG20260808VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Betting piles into Cassidy voting yes on Todd Blanche 99% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:36 UTC | CMSIG20260808VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs July CPI rising more than -0.1% 89% · $28K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:36 UTC | CMSIG20260808VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | A 50+ bps Fed hike in September stays a near-zero bet 0% · $723K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080806 | NEWS-CYCLE | Daily Hormuz transit calls priced in the 25-30 range on the ladder Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-06 · 30 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260806VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Blackburn as TN GOP governor nominee holds at 97% through a volume surge 97% · $54K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260806VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin Aug 7 range bet draws heavy trading at 34% odds 34% · $17K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260806VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Aro Minas Gerais governor bid stays near zero on near-record volume 2% · $15K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260806VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Max Miller OH-07 dropout odds reach 29% as volume spikes before deadline 29% · $15K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260806VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Michigan Senate staying a Democratic hold at 41% GOP odds 41% · $39K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:52 UTC | CMSIG2026080606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Michigan Senate Democratic primary second place near certain Kalshi 99% | KAL | html · json |
| 01:09 UTC | CMSIG2026080608 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin price on August 7 centered near $64,500-$65,000 Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-05 · 31 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ] | |||||
| 10:32 UTC | CMSIG20260805DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | Databricks IPO pricing runs in opposite directions across venues Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 5% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs McKinney as MI-13 Dem nominee 95% · $1.1M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Haley Stevens as MI Senate nominee slips to 2% 2% · $262K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders pile into El-Sayed as MI Senate Dem nominee 99% · $5.8M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Betting picks up on Stevens finishing 2nd in MI primary 99% · $137K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Thanedar MI-13 nominee odds stay under 25% on new volume 5% · $63K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats winning Texas governor stays under 25% 12% · $37K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260805VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold high on a wide El-Sayed primary margin 99% · $442K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080507 | NEWS-CYCLE | CO-05 Republican hold odds slip below 50 percent Polymarket 34% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-04 · 32 DAYS AGO [ 13 wires ] | |||||
| 10:34 UTC | CMSIG20260804DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | Recession-in-2026 pricing diverges on the major prediction desks Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 4% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG20260804VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Thanedar MI-13 nomination bid trades as a long shot 13% · $117K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG20260804VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back McKinney as the MI-13 Democratic pick at 87% 87% · $110K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG20260804VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Senate Judiciary Committee action odds hold firm near certainty 97% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG20260804VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Mizusawa locks in as Virginia GOP Senate pick at 94% 94% · $11K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG20260804VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs Holscher as the Kansas Dem governor pick 91% · $16K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080404 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed rate hike odds hold above 50% despite mixed labor data Kalshi 64% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Total 2026 crypto hack value odds favor $1.5B but short of $2B Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080407 | NEWS-CYCLE | CLARITY Act Senate vote before recess stays a long shot at 36% Kalshi 36% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Todd Blanche confirmation stays heavily favored at 80% Kalshi 80% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080404 | NEWS-CYCLE | Unemployment rate market centers on 4.2%-4.3% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080408 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 27% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080405 | NEWS-CYCLE | July payroll growth seen in the 70K-80K range by prediction markets Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-03 · 33 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 11:19 UTC | CMSIG20260803VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Snap Q2 DAU above 484M stays a strong 90% favorite 90% · $12K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:19 UTC | CMSIG20260803VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading tests El-Sayed MI Senate margin odds 45% · $41K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:32 UTC | CMSIG2026080304 | NEWS-CYCLE | July jobs report odds sit near 50-50 at 90,000-100,000 range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 08:54 UTC | CMSIG2026080306 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $100K by September stays a heavy long shot Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080305 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz transit volume seen staying low, stuck below 70 daily calls Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-08-02 · 34 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 11:17 UTC | CMSIG2026080207 | NEWS-CYCLE | Blue tsunami in 2026 priced near 50-50 on Kalshi Kalshi 40% | KAL | html · json |
| 09:53 UTC | CMSIG20260802VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Iran regime change odds out to September at 7% 7% · $83K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:53 UTC | CMSIG20260802VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iran regime change by Aug 31 stays a long shot at 3% 3% · $233K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:53 UTC | CMSIG20260802VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gemini 3.5 Pro by Aug 16 holds above 50% on heavy Kalshi flow 68% · $15K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:53 UTC | CMSIG20260802VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Sarnecki Kansas GOP governor primary stays a long shot at 12% 12% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-08-01 · 35 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds stay near zero as volume tests US recognition of Russian Ukraine claim 9% · $49K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders pile into Hamas disarmament by Dec 31 at 67% 67% · $563K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 compute price staying above $5.49 by Dec 31 locks near certainty 99% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-31 · 36 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Israel-Hamas ceasefire Phase II by Dec 31 trades above 50% 62% · $20K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold strong on Gemini 3.5 Pro shipping before Aug 31 87% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading tests Senate Judiciary Committee odds at a discount 33% · $23K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders pile into a September Fed cut staying off the table 3% · $922K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Betting picks up on July CPI holding above 3.3% 59% · $38K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:51 UTC | CMSIG2026073103 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump approval above 43 percent priced as long shot Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 04:33 UTC | CMSIG2026073102 | NEWS-CYCLE | US CPI above 3 percent for year ending June holds near 50% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-30 · 37 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Shariatmadari Iran head of state odds crash to zero 0% · $1.4M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices staying above $4.10 draws heavy backing 94% · $100K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Russia capturing Havrylivka by Sep 30 stays a long shot 6% · $48K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds of a deep Fed cut by September stay near zero 1% · $293K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | A 25 bps Fed hike in September leads the rate book 57% · $422K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed hold in September stays a coin-flip bet 39% · $1.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073005 | NEWS-CYCLE | Core CPI falling below 2.2 percent in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 20% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073002 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed funds upper bound holds near 3.5 percent post-meeting Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-29 · 38 DAYS AGO [ 13 wires ] | |||||
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | SHEIN IPO pricing stays near consensus across major desks Polymarket 91% vs Kalshi 84% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Turkey joining Abraham Accords by 2027 stays a long shot 6% · $158K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | RBA August hold near certain as fresh volume piles in at 96% 96% · $20K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Borissov Bulgarian presidency bid priced out near zero 1% · $17K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back a Fed dissent alongside a July pause at 60% 60% · $24K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bouamrane 2027 French presidency priced out at 0% 0% · $26K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Castets 2027 French presidency priced out at 0% 0% · $32K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold low on Russia taking all of Kupiansk by Dec 31 10% · $34K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 07:16 UTC | CMSIG2026072908 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $67,500 by July 31 stays a long shot Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072905 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iranian regime survival holds as long odds stay at 9% Polymarket 9% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072902 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed July dissent odds hold near 50% on hawk pressure Kalshi 60% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072901 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed rate hike by settlement stays a long shot at 22% Polymarket 22% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072905 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iowa Senate seat odds sit near 50-50 after Obama endorsement Polymarket 44% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-28 · 39 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ] | |||||
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG2026072808 | NEWS-CYCLE | Major crypto exchange insolvency in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Stripe IPO timeline carries a premium on the low-volume desk Polymarket 5% vs Kalshi 13% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Average US gas prices staying above $4.04 prices near-certain 98% · $23K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Lydie Massard as French left nominee prices at zero 0% · $19K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Russia taking all of Huliaipole by September 30 84% · $74K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Colorado Dem governorship holds heavy odds on fresh volume 91% · $17K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Trump 50-state visit tracker prices at near-certainty 95% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Ohio GOP governorship race trades at a coin flip 51% · $133K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072808 | NEWS-CYCLE | McConnell resignation before midterms stays a long shot Kalshi 15% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-27 · 40 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iran uranium surrender by August 31 trades at near-zero odds 3% · $48K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading tests the $4.06 gas threshold at 90% odds 90% · $15K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices staying above $4.02 draws near-certain odds 99% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back the gas-above-$4.00 contract at near-certainty 99% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072705 | NEWS-CYCLE | Supreme Court hearing Trump tariff case in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 20% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072704 | NEWS-CYCLE | US effective tariff rate seen landing in the 7.5-10 percent range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-26 · 41 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 09:57 UTC | CMSIG20260726DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | GameStop acquiring eBay stays near long-shot odds, splits across venues Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 17% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices above $4.08 priced as certain 99% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold low on a Trump 2028 run announcement 9% · $27K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Trump Truth Social post count near certainty at 99% 99% · $19K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back Alito retirement odds at 35% 35% · $15K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072601 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed pause firmly priced in at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072604 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed action between April and July prices in heavily Polymarket 77% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-25 · 42 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | KRG independence by year-end stays a long shot at 8% 8% · $70K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas above $4.110 holds at 80% as traders back the threshold 80% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Trump, Netanyahu in-person meeting before Aug 1 stays at 97% 97% · $51K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-24 · 43 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ] | |||||
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin Jul 24 price holds right at 50% on Kalshi 50% · $109K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers pile into Bitcoin's 95% band on Jul 24 close 95% · $36K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fresh volume backs Bitcoin above its 90% band today 90% · $49K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Bitcoin above its Jul 24 band at 76% 76% · $92K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs McConnell Senate exit at 41% 41% · $230K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | OpenAI IPO by July 31 priced out at 0% on Polymarket 0% · $65K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Georgia Senate GOP odds stay low at 10% under volume 10% · $32K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072407 | NEWS-CYCLE | MicroStrategy bankruptcy before 2027 stays a long shot at 4 percent Polymarket 4% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072406 | NEWS-CYCLE | US embassy reopening in Iran stays a heavy long shot at 5% Kalshi 5% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-23 · 44 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 10:17 UTC | CMSIG20260723VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Zyn 160M shipment line draws heavy late trading 98% · $24K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:17 UTC | CMSIG20260723VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Zyn 165M shipment bar stays a near-certainty 98% · $25K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072302 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz July normalization priced as near-certain no Polymarket 1% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072302 | NEWS-CYCLE | Unemployment rate odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent for October Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072308 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump publicly calling out Thune stays below 40% Kalshi 39% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-22 · 45 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders push back on the fed funds rate staying above 3.75% 15% · $44K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds stay near zero on a Fed hike above 25bps in July 1% · $32K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Betting locks in Amish Shah as the AZ-01 Democratic pick 97% · $46K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Jay Feely's Republican AZ-01 nomination trades at certainty 100% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072207 | NEWS-CYCLE | Consensus backs at least one reconciliation bill passing in 2026 Kalshi 73% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072208 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin crossing $100K again stays a long shot below 25% Kalshi 17% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072203 | NEWS-CYCLE | US strikes fewer than 8 countries in 2026 stays favored Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-21 · 46 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | European Ukraine security pledge sits deep in tail-risk territory 8% · $37K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack tail-risk odds on ETH fading to $1,250 26% · $189K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats defended as heavy NC Senate capital locks in 91% · $920K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | John James Michigan GOP nominee status draws conviction bids 84% · $102K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072104 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed funds upper bound seen settling near 3.25 to 3.5 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-20 · 47 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072003 | NEWS-CYCLE | Odds of gas above $4.60 this year slip below 50% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-19 · 48 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 09:49 UTC | CMSIG20260719VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Dan Osborn independent Senate bid absorbs fresh speculative flow 29% · $31K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:49 UTC | CMSIG20260719VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Allam Vancouver mayor bid draws early speculative positioning 27% · $13K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-18 · 49 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 09:20 UTC | CMSIG20260718VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows discount a Ukraine peace referendum before 2027 7% · $31K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:20 UTC | CMSIG20260718VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Jalili's hold on Iranian leadership 0% · $189K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071808 | NEWS-CYCLE | Crypto market structure law by 2027 anchors at modest 38 percent Kalshi 38% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-17 · 50 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 09:53 UTC | CMSIG20260717VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Khatami as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.4M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071704 | NEWS-CYCLE | Proof-of-citizenship voting rule wavers at slim 15 percent Kalshi 15% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071706 | NEWS-CYCLE | Johnson speaker exit in 2026 holds at low probability Kalshi 9% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-16 · 51 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 17:21 UTC | CMSIG20260716VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack conviction behind Lamb locking up AZ-05 GOP nod 89% · $12K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 03:45 UTC | CMSIG2026071603 | NEWS-CYCLE | NATO Article 5 invocation risk holds at deep discount Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 01:05 UTC | CMSIG2026071608 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 consensus wavers at one-in-four Kalshi 26% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-15 · 52 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG20260715VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin $80K by year-end faces heavy fade pressure at one-in-three 33% · $29K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG20260715VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | China Q2 GDP 4.3, 4.6% band locked in at full conviction 100% · $36K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG20260715VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Barbalho second-place finish written off, capital stacks against 0% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-14 · 53 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 18:40 UTC | CMSIG2026071407 | NEWS-CYCLE | South Carolina 6th District new House winner nears full pricing Kalshi 92% | KAL | html · json |
| 13:13 UTC | CMSIG2026071403 | NEWS-CYCLE | Nonfarm productivity above 3% in 2026 trades near 50% Kalshi 45% | KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Rodriguez Wisconsin primary bid draws skeptical capital at 17% 17% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Above-3.8% June CPI absorbs heavy capital near resolution 29% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders lock in June CPI breach above 3.6% as near-certainty 99% · $80K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 05:01 UTC | CMSIG2026071405 | NEWS-CYCLE | CPI above 3.7 percent for year ending July nears consensus Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-13 · 54 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 22:26 UTC | CMSIG2026071303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Rate path under Chair Warsh wavers near 3.5-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 10:56 UTC | CMSIG20260713VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Pourmohammadi as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:56 UTC | CMSIG20260713VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend MBS retaining de facto Saudi leadership by December 5% · $51K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:56 UTC | CMSIG20260713VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Robinhood funded-customer beat sits near certainty ahead of Q2 print 98% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:30 UTC | CMSIG2026071304 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin floor at $60K by year-end fractures toward lower range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 02:15 UTC | CMSIG2026071302 | NEWS-CYCLE | Core CPI pricing anchors near 2.7-2.8 percent ahead of hot print Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-12 · 55 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders discount Trump's UFC 329 appearance as near-zero risk 1% · $87K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Motahari head-of-state bid written off by Iran watchers 0% · $571K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Graham Senate majority leader bid priced into long-shot territory 1% · $42K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republicans defend South Carolina Senate seat at heavy odds 81% · $50K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Core CPI above 2.6% for June year, near-certain settlement 99% · $14K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:26 UTC | CMSIG2026071208 | NEWS-CYCLE | SAVE Act becoming law prices as a deep long-shot on Kalshi Kalshi 8% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-11 · 56 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 09:24 UTC | CMSIG20260711VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SRZP Duma plurality: capital stacks against opposition path 0% · $376K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:24 UTC | CMSIG20260711VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Civic Platform's Duma plurality bid 0% · $413K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:24 UTC | CMSIG20260711VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend the Kim Jong Un leadership status quo 0% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-09 · 58 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ] | |||||
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260709VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds of a Fed hike by October hold near 50% 46% · $83K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260709VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Díaz-Canel departure before 2027 seen as remote by heavy flows 0% · $615K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260709VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Missouri D4 drought by early July draws deep-conviction hedging 71% · $64K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 02:12 UTC | CMSIG2026070908 | NEWS-CYCLE | Platner-plus-Dem-win combo holds at modest discount in Maine Kalshi 64% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-08 · 59 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Abbas departure before 2027 0% · $5.2M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed hike by September sits at 35% on fresh flows 35% · $60K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bahrain regime flows defend stability through year-end 5% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bardella ballot access fades to 8% on heavy volume 8% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Le Pen ballot eligibility defended at 89% conviction 89% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Kalshi flows target Le Pen 2027 win at 35% 35% · $12K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack Le Pen 2027 conviction at 27% 27% · $363K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | ECB July hold priced near certainty at 98% 98% · $21K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-07 · 60 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | UAE-Saudi diplomatic rupture in 2026 stays deep in tail risk 4% · $58K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Platner nominee plus Democratic general win priced as coin-flip 60% · $91K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Maine Senate Democratic hold sits at narrow majority odds 57% · $274K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders price Platner exit as near-certain in Maine Senate 91% · $1.9M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Polymarket stacks Democratic Maine Senate odds at 60% 60% · $149K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed 50+ bps July hike fades to zero as traders absorb guidance 0% · $2.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070705 | NEWS-CYCLE | Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing Kalshi 92% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-06 · 61 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 12:00 UTC | CMSIG20260706VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Sheinbaum exit before 2027 0% · $773K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:00 UTC | CMSIG20260706VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack against Ahmadinejad Iran return by year-end 0% · $200K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 06:59 UTC | CMSIG2026070606 | NEWS-CYCLE | US negative GDP in 2026 remains a low-conviction fringe bet Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-05 · 62 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 10:08 UTC | CMSIG20260705VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Milei as next leader out before 2027 0% · $2.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 02:47 UTC | CMSIG2026070505 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump NATO summit attendance nears full pricing Polymarket 99% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-04 · 63 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ] | |||||
| 18:07 UTC | CMSIG2026070406 | NEWS-CYCLE | June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative territory Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 18:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Satoshi Bitcoin movement by year-end consensus holds deeply skeptical Polymarket 6% | POLY | html · json |
| 10:05 UTC | CMSIG20260704VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Tail risk stacks in US-ally nuclear acquisition by 2027 6% · $57K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:05 UTC | CMSIG20260704VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Netanyahu as next leader out before 2027 0% · $2.4M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-03 · 64 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 10:32 UTC | CMSIG20260703VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off a Trump pre-2027 exit as near-zero 0% · $1.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:32 UTC | CMSIG20260703VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend an 8% Fed hike probability into July 8% · $82K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 04:02 UTC | CMSIG2026070303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Senate Republican re-election losses consensus wavers near 38% Kalshi 38% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-01 · 66 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 16:20 UTC | CMSIG2026070102 | NEWS-CYCLE | Market absorbs Warsh independence stance, Trump-fires-Powell risk stays low Kalshi 9% | KAL | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows discount Lebanon-Israel recognition after June 30 3% · $513K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Market stacks against Ohana ascending to Israeli PM 0% · $538K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Kirkmeyer flows challenge Marx's Colorado GOP lead 45% · $92K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders discount ETH crashing to $500 by year-end 9% · $76K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Flows test Alito retirement odds ahead of recess 34% · $47K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed funds upper bound above 2.75% sits near certainty 99% · $49K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070107 | NEWS-CYCLE | Paxton Republican Texas Senate win consensus holds at majority odds Kalshi 62% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-29 · 68 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 20:14 UTC | CMSIG2026062906 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz traffic normal by June 30 sits at zero pricing Polymarket 0% | POLY | html · json |
| 12:30 UTC | CMSIG20260629DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Tesla-SpaceX merger stance splits sharply across venues Polymarket 28% vs Kalshi 10% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Skeptical flows defend against Russian Myropillia capture 6% · $20K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:27 UTC | CMSIG2026062907 | NEWS-CYCLE | 2Y Treasury month-end yield consensus anchors at 4.10-4.15 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 04:52 UTC | CMSIG2026062901 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iranian regime survival consensus holds at full pricing Polymarket 100% | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 compute pricing above $4.79 commands near-certain flows 96% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Flows defend Victor Marx as Colorado GOP primary locks in 93% · $41K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Lai Ching-te removal through year-end 4% · $34K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | US-Cuba economic deal sits in deep skepticism territory 10% · $14K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | CDU Berlin plurality faces contested capital with even odds 42% · $17K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-28 · 69 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 23:54 UTC | CMSIG2026062805 | NEWS-CYCLE | SCOTUS mail ballot bar consensus hardens near 80 percent Kalshi 79% | KAL | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders defend the zero on Kushner entering Iran by June 30 0% · $247K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend H200 compute above $4.99 into June close 94% · $41K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Markets write off Netanyahu entering Iran by June 30 0% · $4.9M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 at $4.19 floor absorbs final-day selling at near-certain levels 96% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:02 UTC | CMSIG2026062807 | NEWS-CYCLE | SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship EO strike-down nears full pricing Polymarket 94% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-27 · 70 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Solana all-time-high by June 30 sits in dead-money territory 0% · $223K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off a Vance Iran entry by June 30 0% · $751K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital stacks on Tesla falling short of 475K Q2 deliveries 26% · $24K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Tesla 400K, 425K delivery band targeted by late Q2 capital 29% · $10K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | WTI $70 floor by year-end defended at near-certainty 99% · $21K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows lean against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 5% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Crude Oil $35 June low dismissed as an extreme tail scenario 0% · $32K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gold $6,200 June settle written off with three days left 0% · $131K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Silver $120 June expiry stacked firmly in the 'No' column 0% · $25K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | US annexation in 2026 sits in deep tail territory at 7% 7% · $45K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-26 · 71 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 12:51 UTC | CMSIG2026062608 | NEWS-CYCLE | US CBDC ban by end of 2026 nears full pricing on Congress move Kalshi 97% | KAL | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack near-certainty on $1.8T SpaceX floor 98% · $727K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SpaceX IPO valuation battle sits squarely at $2.2T 67% · $722K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SpaceX $2.4T target sits in contested tail territory 21% · $696K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend a $2T SpaceX IPO floor 93% · $926K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Market discounts a $4T SpaceX IPO as implausible 0% · $429K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Kenyon underdog positioning draws capital in Makerfield 27% · $332K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders lock in Project Freedom restart by June 30 100% · $3.1M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off any Musk acquisition of OnlyFans 0% · $657K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 02:35 UTC | CMSIG2026062606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Inflation surge in 2026 above 4.5 percent nears pricing out Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-25 · 72 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 21:47 UTC | CMSIG2026062506 | NEWS-CYCLE | Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot Polymarket 28% | POLY | html · json |
| 20:16 UTC | CMSIG2026062505 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures Polymarket 31% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-24 · 73 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 14:18 UTC | CMSIG2026062401 | NEWS-CYCLE | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers on inspection dispute Polymarket 51% | POLY | html · json |
| 10:47 UTC | CMSIG20260624BD00 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Traders pile into US GDP breaking above 2% 76% · Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED) 1.6% | KAL | html · json |
| 03:50 UTC | CMSIG2026062403 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran war powers resolution passage odds anchored near zero Polymarket 10% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026062405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran ends uranium enrichment by June 30 pricing holds deep discount Polymarket 24% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026062406 | NEWS-CYCLE | Progressive Senate primary sweep consensus wavers at majority odds Kalshi 56% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-23 · 74 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 05:22 UTC | CMSIG2026062303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran uranium enrichment halt by July 31 stays well below even odds Polymarket 29% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-22 · 75 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026062206 | NEWS-CYCLE | Core PCE above zero in May nears full pricing consensus Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-21 · 76 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 05:18 UTC | CMSIG2026062103 | NEWS-CYCLE | Pre-2027 US-Iran deal consensus anchors above 70 percent Polymarket 71% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-20 · 77 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 15:36 UTC | CMSIG2026062005 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed emergency meeting odds hold low despite Warsh guidance vacuum Kalshi 10% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-19 · 78 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 09:25 UTC | CMSIG2026061905 | NEWS-CYCLE | Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting pricing near zero amid fresh strikes Polymarket 4% | POLY | html · json |
| 07:53 UTC | CMSIG2026061903 | NEWS-CYCLE | BTC end-June floor pricing wavers below $57.5K implied range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-18 · 79 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 19:54 UTC | CMSIG2026061808 | NEWS-CYCLE | ETH end-2026 downside floor pricing nears $1000-$1250 implied range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061807 | NEWS-CYCLE | Florida 14th House race fractured at dead even pricing Polymarket 51% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-17 · 80 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 06:35 UTC | CMSIG2026061701 | NEWS-CYCLE | June Fed funds hold at 3.50-3.75 percent nears full pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 05:20 UTC | CMSIG2026061708 | NEWS-CYCLE | USDC at 50 percent of USDT market cap in 2026 holds at even odds Polymarket 53% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061702 | NEWS-CYCLE | Dissent at Warsh debut FOMC anchors at two-thirds odds Kalshi 67% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-16 · 81 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ] | |||||
| 09:02 UTC | CMSIG2026061605 | NEWS-CYCLE | Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 priced near zero Polymarket 2% | POLY | html · json |
| 04:48 UTC | CMSIG2026061606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin June 16 level pricing clusters at $64K to $66K Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061607 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin near $64K-$66K on June 17 splits the ladder Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end wavers near even split Polymarket 47% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-15 · 82 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 09:16 UTC | CMSIG2026061504 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz transit calls consensus anchors in the 20 to 25 range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-14 · 83 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 08:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $62K on June 14 commands solid majority in pricing Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-12 · 85 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 14:32 UTC | CMSIG2026061207 | NEWS-CYCLE | Gas prices above $4.60 to $4.80 by year-end holds as market midpoint Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 14:13 UTC | CMSIG2026061208 | NEWS-CYCLE | SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Grok 5 pre-July release splits sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 14% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off a MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale by May 31 0% · $139M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital stacks behind a US-Iran deal before June 15 14% · $2.5M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend Bass as Los Angeles mayor favorite 79% · $1.2M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bear capital probes a $55K Bitcoin collapse scenario 14% · $226K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack conviction on a $65K Bitcoin dip in June 87% · $246K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | $100K Bitcoin by June sits deep in tail-risk territory 0% · $253K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Market defends Bass-Pratt as the confirmed LA mayor ballot 79% · $258K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iowa GOP field folds, Lahn flows defend a locked nomination 100% · $557K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-11 · 86 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 20:48 UTC | CMSIG2026061103 | NEWS-CYCLE | August CPI month-over-month consensus anchors near 0.3 to 0.4 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 04:46 UTC | CMSIG2026061105 | NEWS-CYCLE | Any Hormuz ship transit by June 30 consensus wavers at majority Polymarket 58% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-10 · 87 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ] | |||||
| 09:06 UTC | CMSIG2026061006 | NEWS-CYCLE | Inflation surge to 4.5-5 percent in 2026 nears majority pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 02:11 UTC | CMSIG2026061008 | NEWS-CYCLE | Collins as Maine GOP Senate nominee fully absorbed into pricing Kalshi 99% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061008 | NEWS-CYCLE | Collins Maine win combined with Paxton Texas win wavers below even odds Kalshi 39% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061001 | NEWS-CYCLE | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 wavers at coin-flip pricing Polymarket 45% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-08 · 89 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026060806 | NEWS-CYCLE | Putin-Zelenskyy June 30 meeting nears zero pricing Polymarket 1% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-06 · 91 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:02 UTC | CMSIG2026060608 | NEWS-CYCLE | California governor primary advance nears full pricing Kalshi 83% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-05 · 92 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 18:52 UTC | CMSIG2026060503 | NEWS-CYCLE | Peak unemployment below 5 percent holds firm in pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-04 · 93 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 13:27 UTC | CMSIG2026060408 | NEWS-CYCLE | Lebanon ceasefire extension announcement wavers at low odds Polymarket 20% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260604BD22 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Fed lower bound at 2.75 percent trails well behind FRED rate 5% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260604BD28 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Rate path to 5.25 percent detaches sharply from FRED baseline 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260604BD10 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Fed funds at 4.5 percent end-2026 lags far below FRED rate 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75% | POLY | html · json |
| 07:42 UTC | CMSIG2026060407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $68K on June 6 priced a long shot Polymarket 31% | POLY | html · json |
| 01:30 UTC | CMSIG2026060405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin Jun 5 pricing fractures below $67K-$67.5K range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-03 · 94 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 19:00 UTC | CMSIG2026060305 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15 priced near-impossible Polymarket 6% | POLY | html · json |
| 12:15 UTC | CMSIG2026060306 | NEWS-CYCLE | May ADP payrolls above 100K priced near a coin flip Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 01:49 UTC | CMSIG20260603DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Anthropic IPO before 2027 pricing splits across venues Polymarket 70% vs Kalshi 76% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders discount an Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30 19% · $203K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend Hormuz normal by June 15 as a long shot 14% · $222K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders target US-Iran peace by June 7 as a long shot 29% · $642K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin at $150K by June 30 sits deep in tail-risk territory 1% · $5.8M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS08 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Russia capturing all Donetsk by Dec 31 5% · $43K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Paxton Texas runoff margin above 20 percent near-certain on big flows 99% · $668K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Nasdaq-100 above 30K before Dec 31 priced near-certain 99% · $63K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:50 UTC | CMSIG2026060306 | NEWS-CYCLE | Consensus tilts toward Trump unfreezing Iranian assets by June 30 Polymarket 68% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-02 · 95 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 15:52 UTC | CMSIG2026060204 | NEWS-CYCLE | May payrolls above 80K sits near a coin flip in pricing Kalshi 45% | KAL | html · json |
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programmatic access · one payload, every surface
One canonical wire record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, the JSON feed, MCP tools, RSS, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | this page — embedded JSON-LD @type: DataCatalog | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ |
| JSON | full wire list, newest first | /signals.json |
| JSON | any single wire record | /signals/<slug>.json |
| JSON | every wire for a given event | /signals/for-event/<event_id>.json |
| MCP | agent tool calls (read-only) | list_signals · get_signal |
| RSS | auto-discovered feed for indexers (Perplexity etc.) | /signals/rss.xml |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |